A pre-print study by C. Alegria and Y. Nunes titled “Trends in death rates from Neurological diseases in the US for all ages and detailed analysis for 15-44” posted in June 2024 found an increase in deaths due to neurological diseases from 2020 to 2023.
The paper is 21 pages long. The main text is about 16 pages, the remaining are references and tables.
The study analyzed US CDC data for deaths from neurological diseases as the underlying cause (UC) and multiple causes (MC). The definition of MC includes the UC. The study focuses on the 15–44 age group because it has been reportedly worse for this age group.
Regarding UC death rate:
In 2010 the death rate was 2.94 per 100,000 and in 2019 it was 3.31 per 100,000, a 12.6% rise. The death rate rose in 2020 to 3.52 per 100,000, and then rose again to 3.76 per 100,000 in 2021. In 2022 the death rate rose further to 3.81 per 100,000 and in 2023 it was 3.80 per 100,000.
There is a corresponding excess to this increase:
…the excess death rates from neurological diseases as the underlying cause (UC) were 4.4% in 2020, then rose to 10.0% in 2021, 9.9% in 2022 and 8.1% in 2023. By comparison, the excess mortality for all-cause deaths was 19.9% in 2020, 33.8% in 2021, 16.8% in 2022, and -3.7% in 2023.
However, despite the drop in all-cause mortality from 2021 to 2022,
…excess deaths from neurological diseases as the underlying cause remained stable. This trend continued in 2023, with excess neurological deaths remaining high while all-cause excess deaths were negative.
Regarding MC death rate:
In 2010 the death rate was 6.85 per 100,000 and in 2019 it was 8.32 per 100,000, a 21.5% rise. MC death rates from neurological diseases rose substantially in 2020 to 9.54 per 100,000 and then rose to 10.57 per 100,000 in 2021 and then dropped slightly to 10.26 per 100,000 in 2022 and to 9.78 per 100,000 in 2023.
Interestingly, even after removing COVID-19-related deaths, there is “an increase in MC neurological deaths in 2020, 2021 and 2022, and a stabilization in 2023 rather than a reversion to trend”.
There is a corresponding excess to this increase:
…the excess MC death rates from neurological diseases were 11.2% in 2020, then rose to 20.6% in 2021, before declining to 14.7% in 2022, and 7.1% in 2023. These numbers track the rises in all-cause mortality which we mentioned in Figure 4, and are closely associated with COVID-19-related deaths.
After the removal of COVID-19-related deaths, the pattern of MC deaths is similar to UC deaths.
The paper does include an appendix in which is tabulated the excess death rates for all age groups in smaller brackets for the years 2020 to 2023. For UC, the 15–24 age group typically has the highest excess death rates. For MC, the 35–44 age group typically has higher excess death rates except in 2023.
As for the cause, anyone can “guess”. The year 2020 can, for the sake of argument, be explained by COVID-19 itself and the measures such as lockdowns.
The acceleration in excess death rates from neurological diseases in 2021, 2022 and 2023 is more difficult to explain due to COVID-19 on its own. Given the case studies of neurological adverse events following COVID-19 vaccination cited in the literature, one possible factor could be adverse effects of the COVID-19 vaccines.
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