Given the current threats to the US, at least a few commentators have made comments regarding potential threats against President Trump and the incoming administration, including the upcoming inauguration ceremony.
There are two reports published by “Laughing Cloud, ARM” that analyze recent events and discuss potential/hypothetical threats. The author(s) claims to have operational experience in military and military intelligence matters or something to that effect.
It should be noted that the author does not necessarily claim his suspicions or explanations to be true or that these events will occur. It is his “analysis of the current Intelligence at hand”.
I have no experience in the military or intelligence. The author appeals to commonsense and well-known observations, and his reasoning is sound, so the work has merit.
Both reports are just over twenty pages long and are an easy and intriguing read. The writing is mostly clean although formatting can be better. It is plausible the author has much experience in writing intelligence reports but is not a “writer”.
The first report is “Hypothetical Threat to US NatSec during Inaugural Proceedings” dated 5 January 2025. A few key points are listed below, not intended to be a summary.
Two recent failed assassination attempts against President Trump.
Many high-level US government officials have ties to Chinese businesses or the Chinese Communist Party, including Biden.
China owns much land in CONUS.
China operates ports in CONUS.
China has the means to bring in a large number of drones and possesses the advanced technological means to operate them.
Recent mass drone sightings may be part of “a strategy and aspect of 5GW” as saturation and over-stimulation can induce normalcy bias.
Recent fog, whether natural and/or artificial, can be part of a chemical/biological attack using cloud seeding, smoke/fog operations and drones to release the agent. Phosgene (COCl2) is a possibility given the reported symptoms. The fog itself serves as a cover for drone activity.
The author does not rule out the US government conducting weather warfare.
The current administration and mainstream have set up Iran as the enemy but Iran does not have the force projection for such a complex operation against the US.
Drones, even a large number, are relatively cheap.
In short, the above is a multiphasic attack that can culminate in a drone swarm attack against President Trump and the incoming administration. China has the motive, means and opportunity for such a decapitation strike.
The second report is “Threats to NatSec posed by Collaborative+Coordinated Complex Attacks using refurbished Nuclear device” dated 9 January 2025. A few key points are listed below, not intended to be a summary.
It is well known there are unaccounted-for nuclear devices after the collapse of the USSR. The report assumes an 18–20kt variable yield device from 1994.
“HUMINT and personal contacts have indicated that the assassination of Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov (head of Russia’s Nuclear, Biological and Chemical protection troops) in Moscow on 17 December 2024 was the result of information that General Kirillov on who procured the components and initiator for said device.”
The expertise and components required to refurbish such a nuclear device rule out a bunch of hacks resorting to black-market acquisitions alone.
Such a covert operation requires not only expertise and access to components but also the means, such as border and customs connections, to transport components without detection. In other words, it requires a state-sponsored actor.
Russia has nothing to gain in sponsoring the use of such a nuclear device in a covert operation against the US, especially when such a device can easily be traced back to Russia.
The author is also of the opinion that such action does not match the psychological profile of President Putin. He has demonstrated restraint in Ukraine and, given Russia’s “proximity to victory” there, he “would not jeopardize Russian advances nor throw away the lives lost on the Russian side in such a foolhardy action”.
The most likely candidate for such a state-sponsored actor is China.
On 8 December 2022, Viktor Bout was traded for Britney Griner in a 1-for-1 prisoner exchange between Russia and the US. Bout is a known arms dealer and since the exchange, he has “maintained significant ties in Central Asia, chiefly Uzbekistan”.
The author speculates that Bout, whether knowingly or unknowingly, could be part of a broader Chinese plan to facilitate the transportation of the required material.
Given that the author speculates a drone swarm attack against the inauguration, this nuclear device will instead be used against Naval Station Norfolk.
Such an attack takes advantage of and therefore is used in conjunction with the drone swarm attack; for example, when “normal detection may be distracted or overwhelmed”.
Detonation of a nuclear device against Naval Station Norfolk will obviously deal an economic blow to the US, destroy the two carrier strike groups in port, destroy supporting infrastructure, and command and control.
In short, such an attack, especially when coupled with the abovementioned decapitation strike, will cripple the US economy, naval force projection in the Atlantic, and the psyche of the population. China has the motive, means and opportunity for such an operation.
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As already mentioned, I have no experience in military or intelligence but I offer my opinion.
1. The speculation by the author is well-reasoned and therefore plausible.
2. The only “flaw” in the analysis is that although China has much to gain from such strikes, the reason that excludes Russia applies to everyone else, albeit differently. China is no exception despite compromised US government officials.
3. In any case, it is blatantly obvious that “they” (whoever “they” are) have already attacked and are attacking the US. The recent assassination attempts against President Trump and the current fires in California are merely a few examples.
4. Regardless of whether such a drone and/or a nuke attack will play out, it is reasonable to assume “they” will attempt further attacks, possibly at the inauguration.
I would not like to see the inauguration of President Trump delayed by more than 48 hours. Any significant delay is not good for morale, American or otherwise. Even if people appreciate the complexity of the situation, it is natural to want to see President Trump in office and overt action take place.
However, given the current and assumed threats, it would be wise to not have the incoming administration congregated in one location. Key members and their staff and families should be at secured locations. I personally do not care about the optics associated with the usual fanfare and pomp. Just broadcast the ceremony from some bunker and get on with it.
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